planetwater

I mentioned a little while ago that Steve Strogatz’s has started a series of posts on numbers. By now, Steve has published six sequels. Every one of his posts explains in a very understandable manner either seemingly simple or seemingly complex issues related to numbers. They are very joyful and entertaining reads.

• “From Fish to Infinity” — what are numbers, counting, great Seseame Street video

• “Rock Groups” — odd numbers can form L-shapes

  

  uneven numbers can form L-Shapes

• “The Enemy of My Enemy” — making peace with negative numbers

• “Division and Its Discontents” — fun with fractions, decimals and numbers like 0.12122122212222…

around here Steve moves from grade school arithmetic to high school math

• “The Joy of X” — “…in the end they all boil down to just two activities — solving for x and working with formulas.” … and always check for the units!
• “Finding Your Roots” — the square root of -1; complex numbers have all the properties as real numbers [...], but they are better than real numbers, because they always have roots; a flip of 180 degrees can happen by multiplying twice with i or by multiplying with -1, so ; fractals

Update Saturday; March 13, 2010:

Seedmagazine just published an interview with Steven Strogatz. The occasion of the interview was a book recently published by Strogatz: The Calculus of Friendship: What a Teacher and a Student Learned about Life While Corresponding about Math

• Krugman: "globally, this is shaping up as the warmest winter on record" – sceptics point out: lots of snow in NE USA – http://ke-we.net/9m #
• crowdsourcing urban infrastructure using iPhone in Boston http://ke-we.net/93 #
• harvest geothermal energy from water that is pumped out of subway systems anyway (NYC): http://ke-we.net/92#more-5201 #

I watched the documentary Plastic Planet last night. Despite its similar title compared with this blog, water occurs a few times in this documentary. In fact, it is shown in this documentary, how by-products of plastic are measured in human blood and linked to infertility.

The two most pressing problems with plastic are:

• The amount of garbage it turns into. 2 examples:

  1. the ratio of plankton to plastic in the oceans is as high as 1:60. This is very much related to the plastic in Albatrosses I have blogged previously about. The movie talks about a trip with the sailboat Algalita from the Algalita Marine Research Foundation. You can check out one of their presentations here.
  2. annual clean-up weekend on a japanese island (a fairly small island, the kind where you can walk around in a day) results in 120 truck loads of plastic. That’s one small island only!

• The health problems it causes. None of the “direct problems” are deadly immediately. There is one interview however in the movie with a scientist who says something along the lines:

  “When you drive to your chemotherapy session to treat the cancer you got because of continuous low-level exposure to plastic, you will ask yourself if all the plastic you ever used has been helping you”.

Both problems are intertwined: a PVC diaper continues to degrade and release substances for 200 years.

Plastic Planet movie poster

Here are some more pieces of information from the movie:

• the production of the actual plastic is secret. Here is an illustrative example: A company that manufactures water bottles usually doesn’t “create” the plastic they use but they buy it from a third party. Hence, the company that builds water bottles doesn’t know what substances are contained in the “raw plastic” (the pellets) they use. Finally, the company that fills water into water bottles is yet another company.

• 60 million tons of plastics are produced in Europe per year

• big business: sales: 800 billion Euros per year

• common misconception: plastics are inert. Not true! it degrades and bound molecules get free

  • ubiquitous (present everywhere) — clenup on island: in 2d 120 truck loads
  • persistent (chemical compounds that don’t change with changing environmental influence)

• the first plastic was created just after 1900: Bakelite

• Two of the most critical compounds of plastic are Phtalate and Bisphenol A. There is also Vinyl chloride, which is needed in the production process of the pellets. Exemplarily a chemical process factory of a company called Montedison near Venice, Italy is shown in the movie, where a worker with state attorney Felice Casson has linked the use of Vinyl chloride with health problems.

• A key concept related to health effects originating from plastics is “endocrine disruptor“

Like the movie, I want to close with a positive outlook: There are attempts to create products with similar properties like plastic, but from regenerative sources. Such products are called “Bioplastic”. A company that produces Bioplastic is called Novamont based in Italy.

I have a draft of a blog post on water outside earth in the works since quite some time now. Various information has been added, whenever I read something about water on the moon or on mars, which are the two places where it has been found, I think. I am not sure exactly where I am going with this. However, I noticed over the last half year or so an increased rate of published news on this topic. So at least this is a start to reflect on what is going on.

Water and Moon

Photo via FlickR

Recently, water has been found on the moon

• NASA mission: LCROSS, see also Wired or NYTimes
• Nov 13 2009 reported
• 26 gallons (about 14 kettles) supposedly identified
• all based on remote sensing of pictures that were taken from a satellite crashing into Moon (October 9th).
• there have previously been hints/guesses/evidence that there is water on Moon (here or here …). So this is really not overly surprising, except it might indicate water in frozen form
• last week (March 1st, 2010) is was reported that millions of tons of water ice have been found at moon’s north pole

I am not sure how this fits into the big picture, or why we do care. Here is Peter Gelick’s opinion why we care:

Why do we care? Obviously, this water isn’t going to help solve any of our water problems here on earth. But if we do, as a species, move out into space, water is the single most important resource we can find. It is too heavy to move water from the surface of the Earth into space, but if we can find it out there, it can be used for drinking water, to make oxygen for breathing, hydrogen for rocket fuel, and to produce food.

I agree. Water in space can be very helpful if we humans want to go into space. Is there more? Is this in the wake of the 40th birthday of the first landing on the Moon?

• there is evidence that there is water on Mars: here are two things that have been found out recently:

  • clay minerals have been found which indicate that water has flown through them (summary interview part 1 and part 2)
  • the presence of perchlorate has been confirmed, which is a molecule metabolized by some earthly bacteria
  • some people have developed already hydrogeologic numerical models for the flow of water and CO2 on mars

• there is some evidence pointing to water really really far away

It seems likely that if there’s water in space, this water could be or could have been used by life:

But most noteworthy might be the NASA chief’s optimism for detecting extraterrestrial life. “I would be very surprised if we didn’t find life elsewhere, and frankly I expect to live to see it,” Griffin said. “I would be surprised to find that life never originated on Mars, and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to find dormant or quiescent life underground,” he added.

Recently I saw a presentation given by Ulrike Pokorski da Cunha in Stuttgart (and I had blogged about it). She just informed me about a master-level course that she is involved in. Please find more information below, on this flyer (pdf), or on the course’s webpage. Deadline for applications is March 31st 2010

If you are interested, please feel free to contact me, I will forward any requests you might have

The Cologne University of Applied Sciences is offering a “Bicultural Master Course ‘Integrated Water Resource Management for Arab and German Professional’ “. The master program will be offered to selected Arab and German applicants. The preparatory course, as well as the first term, will be offered in Amman (University of Jordan, WERS Centre), Jordan. The second term will be offered in Cologne (Cologne University of Applied Sciences, ITT), Germany. During the third term the students will work on their master thesis related to the Arab or German water sector. Besides the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), students will also be imparted with professional skills, which are essential for the success of international projects: intercultural knowledge, project and information management, communication and leadership skills.

Unique of this master course is its emphasis on the bicultural aspect. Each module is conceived and taught together both by an Arab and a German lecturer. Additionally, students work throughout the program in tandem aiming at a mutual exchange of language and culture. The exchange of social and economic aspects of both countries occupies an important part in the master course.

The Arab students may apply for a full scholarship for the entire duration of the course, whereas the German students may apply for a partial scholarship covering their journey to Jordan and their stay during the Master thesis in an Arab country.

• "OK Go-This Too Shall Pass" – crazy [video] of flipping "domino" http://bit.ly/d9cCug via @sumrtime RT @modernscientist #
• 2' water-level fluctuation in monitoring well in VA after Chile quake http://bit.ly/amgxIq USGS hydrograph http://bit.ly/9BA0rK RT @cbdawson #
• Teach yourself programming in 10 years, including reference to Gladwell's 10,000 hours: http://bit.ly/9ipLvW #
• Bill McKibben compares climate change deniers with the O J Simpson trial – "even O J is finally in jail": http://bit.ly/aXPOhP #
• Nice graphic from Honolulu Advertiser @HonAdv illustrating the tsunami: http://bit.ly/bk8d7Q #hitsunami (via @brianshiro) #
• Separation after the gold medalist in #olympic events: audio- visualization by the #NYT http://nyti.ms/9Vh2CF via http://bit.ly/9TYN0l #
• If you like charts and maps then this is a great place to start: http://chartsbin.com/ #

The Universe of Discourse pointed me to “Mondas”. Before, I had no idea, what Monads are. Likely, I still don’t have a clue, but I did like this wicked analogy: Monads are like burritos. When I continued reading the Universe of Disclosure, I learned that probability distributions form Monads. Which is where I saw the first time what turned out to be Haskell code (I think). Finally, the Universe of Discourse provides a bibliography of probability Monads.

This is why blogging is cool.

Norm Costa recently published on 3 Quarks Daily his thoughts on “PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE: MEASUREMENT, UNCERTAINTY, AND DETERMINISM” (part 1 and part 2).

A lot of his thoughts are mostly relevant to psychology, but I will try and extract some thoughts that are relevant to an environmental modeller. Mostly the thoughts that are relevant are related to measurement, error and uncertainty.

I do have a hard time on commenting on Costa’s thoughts, but I think they are well worth to be read and thought about!

Measurement

• a measurement is a comparison to a standard;
• standards do not last;
• I recently came across a funny unit: 1 knot, which is the velocity of a vessel which travels one minute of geographic latitude in one hour

Measurement of Precipitation

Photo by wfyurasko

Error

Costa does treat “error” not so much in a sense as in “measurement error”, but in terms of “what is research” and how do scientists deal with research and progress in research.

I like comparing scientific psychology with psychics because it dispels many false notions of science and makes room for psychology in the pantheon of science. For example:

• It dispels the notion that ‘real’ science is exact, objective, and dispassionate; Also, it blunts the objections of those who dismiss psychological science as inexact, subjective, and self-absorbed.
• It dispels the notion that there is such a thing as an exact science; Rather there are sciences that deal with relatively smaller errors of measurement (physics,) and others that deal with relatively larger errors of measurement (econometrics.) Psychology lies between the two in terms of the size of errors of measurement.
• Few scientists are objective and dispassionate in the absolute; Rather, science, by the way science is conducted, is self-correcting, in the long run, and keeps scientists on the straight and narrow.
• Scientists are not free of biases, preconceptions, misconceptions, and personal agendas; Rather, these can fuel the energy, motivation, and creativity of scientists.
• No scientific knowledge is absolute, unchanging, or final; Rather, all scientific knowledge is proximate and provisional, and only represents the best we can produce to this point in time. We can count on better data in the future superseding present-day knowledge.

Uncertainty

In his discussion on uncertainty, Costa talks quite a bit about Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and how it relates to psychology. Here are two relevant passages:

For Heisenberg and all of quantum physics, UNCERTAINTY IS A PROPERTY OF NATURE. For scientific psychology, uncertainty is a function of the limitation of our measurement tools, not a property of nature.

Einstein’s view of the world was a deterministic one: Knowledge of an outcome is certain, provided all factors and antecedents are known. For quantum physics, outcomes are uncertain (probabilistic) because uncertainty is a property of nature, not a function of inadequate measuring. Einstein’s objection to this is captured in his famous statement, “God does not play dice.” In fact, God does play dice. God spends the whole damn day playing dice. Paradoxically, Einstein, the man who gave birth to quantum physics, could not accept Heisenberg’s ‘Uncertainty Principle’ and was forever bypassed by science and left to doter in the backwater of physics.

• Termin für das barcamp stuttgart 2010 steht fest: 11./12.9.2010 http://tinyurl.com/bcs3termin (via @alomuc) #bcs3 #
• @Stz_Stuttgart published a list of water prices from private and from public suppliers: http://bit.ly/b3OhBV – Check out the differences! #
• All the band band names are taken! http://ke-we.net/3e #stats #
• There are many ways to get hooked to #science http://bit.ly/9bxNox #
• Warum bin ich nach einem (Nürnberger) #BarCamp #glücklich? neuer Post: http://bit.ly/cLfM4U #bcnue2 #
• @jweiss gibt's die "CloudComputing" slides Deines Kollegen von heute morgen irgendwie? in reply to jweiss #
• novel index to measure water related risks for investors: http://bit.ly/9cbUJ4 #
• conference 25-Feb: Understanding, Measuring & Managing #Water Scarcity #Risks & Footprints (incl a speaker from coke): http://bit.ly/9W5xr7 #
• "Why I'm dropping Google" http://bit.ly/9bdk80 – might fit very well to previous post… #
• crazy headline: google can sell #power like a #utility http://bit.ly/bo6No9 – what's next? #water #energy #
• Los geht's! Mach mich auch den Weg zum #bcnue2 #

Ich war bisher auf zwei Barcamps. Auf dem Nachhauseweg war ich beide Male ein glücklicher Mensch. Warum ist das so?

Ein Barcamp scheint ein Ort mit vielen “vernünftigen” Menschen zu sein. Irgendwie eine gute Blase in einem Meer voller nicht so guter Blasen. Was heisst nun “vernünftig”?

• Die Leute da sind begeistert von dem was sie machen.
• Weil sie begeistert sind, teilen sie das anderen mit, und teilen die Erfahrungen die sie während des gemacht haben. Zum Beispiel ist ein Mitarbeiter eines Internetanbieters so begeistert, dass er erklärt, was zwischen Deinem Rechner und dem Server auf dem die Internetseite die Du gerade liest liegt passiert. Oder ein Performance-Artist ist so begeistert von “Kommunikation”, dass er eine Session moderiert die man noch stundenlang weiter hätte spinnen können. Oder jemand erklärt, wie man sich viel Sachen einfach merken kann
• Die Begeisterung bringt mit sich, dass man recht gut über neue Dinge bescheid weiss, oder sogar an der Entwicklung von neuen Dingen mit beiträgt. Zum Beispiel 3D Drucker.
• Viele Dinge werden momentan mit Computern entwickelt, deswegen haben viele Sessions und Gespräche Internet, Software oder Hardware zum Thema. Die Entwickler sind aber immer noch Menschen, und alles was dazu gehört, und das kommt nicht zu kurz.
• Dass das Aufräumen “crowd-gesourced” funktioniert erscheint heutzutage zuerst erstaunlich, ist aber doch eher typisch für vernünftige Menschen.

Den Organisieren des Barcamp Nuernberg noch ein besonderer Dank für die tolle Organisation. Mittagessen am Sonntag: Schweinbraten, halbseitne Klös und a Seidla Zirndorfer. Wow.

Sonntag Mittag am BCNUE2

Bild von Oliver Schaef via Flickr