Comments on: Magnitudes of Extreme Weather Events http://planetwater.org/2010/05/04/magnitudes-of-extreme-weather-events/ ground- water, engineering, science, geo- statistics Tue, 05 Jul 2011 08:16:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: BIOCYTE http://planetwater.org/2010/05/04/magnitudes-of-extreme-weather-events/comment-page-1/#comment-1334 BIOCYTE Mon, 25 Apr 2011 07:45:36 +0000 http://planetwater.org/?p=928#comment-1334 <p>Thanks , very interesting !</p> Thanks , very interesting !

]]> By: float http://planetwater.org/2010/05/04/magnitudes-of-extreme-weather-events/comment-page-1/#comment-1228 float Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:34:27 +0000 http://planetwater.org/?p=928#comment-1228 <p>Just a thought that came up reading that: What is the monetary risk of a severe storm occurring right after another big storm. I.e. if it destroys houses that are still destroyed. So maybe monetary risk isn't as autocorrelated as storms are.</p> Just a thought that came up reading that: What is the monetary risk of a severe storm occurring right after another big storm. I.e. if it destroys houses that are still destroyed. So maybe monetary risk isn’t as autocorrelated as storms are.

]]> By: Claus http://planetwater.org/2010/05/04/magnitudes-of-extreme-weather-events/comment-page-1/#comment-333 Claus Sun, 01 Aug 2010 07:07:08 +0000 http://planetwater.org/?p=928#comment-333 <p>Hi guys, thank you for your replies.</p> <ul> <li><p>I think The Black Swan is a nice book. I think especially because it brings the notion to the public that not everything is distributed like a gaussian curve.</p></li> <li><p>I think there are several measures of "severity", and which one you use depends on your context. You mentioned a few reasonable ones.</p></li> <li><p>well, maybe more pointedly I would say: (Probability of occurrence) * (Associated monetary losses) = risk. And yes, again, you point to an important issue. I like to think that we (the engineering world that deals with say stochastic hydrology) does a fairly decent job in figuring out what the probability of failure (return periods) are. However, we do a fairly poor job in figuring out what the associated costs are.</p></li> <li><p>One book that actually Tommy refers to in his book does a fairly decent job in talking about these issues:</p></li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/0521870283?ie=UTF8&tag=planetwateror-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1638&creative=19454&creativeASIN=0521870283" rel="nofollow">"Climate Extremes and Society" edited by Diaz, Henry F. and Murnane, Richard J. </a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.de/e/ir?t=planetwateror-21&l=as2&o=3&a=0521870283" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" /></p> Hi guys, thank you for your replies.

  • I think The Black Swan is a nice book. I think especially because it brings the notion to the public that not everything is distributed like a gaussian curve.

  • I think there are several measures of “severity”, and which one you use depends on your context. You mentioned a few reasonable ones.

  • well, maybe more pointedly I would say: (Probability of occurrence) * (Associated monetary losses) = risk. And yes, again, you point to an important issue. I like to think that we (the engineering world that deals with say stochastic hydrology) does a fairly decent job in figuring out what the probability of failure (return periods) are. However, we do a fairly poor job in figuring out what the associated costs are.

  • One book that actually Tommy refers to in his book does a fairly decent job in talking about these issues:

“Climate Extremes and Society” edited by Diaz, Henry F. and Murnane, Richard J.

]]> By: j http://planetwater.org/2010/05/04/magnitudes-of-extreme-weather-events/comment-page-1/#comment-289 j Tue, 22 Jun 2010 10:36:47 +0000 http://planetwater.org/?p=928#comment-289 <p>Hi Claus,</p> <p>How do you describe severity? Wind speed? Duration of the storm? Extend of the storm?</p> <p>If you talk about economic losses you talk about (at least a small part of) risk. Very crudely we can use the equation: Hazard x vulnerability = risk. So, when you talk about return periods you talk about hazards, when you talk about the related economic damage you talk about risk!</p> <p>Unfortunately this leads immediately to the next unpleasant question: How to measure economic losses? A total value for a storm with a given return period? Yearly costs caused by a storm of a certain return period and severity? Which risk is higher? A risk with low probability but high damages or rather moderate damages by high probability? How do you include human behavior, i.e. risk aversion? Lots to think about.</p> Hi Claus,

How do you describe severity? Wind speed? Duration of the storm? Extend of the storm?

If you talk about economic losses you talk about (at least a small part of) risk. Very crudely we can use the equation: Hazard x vulnerability = risk. So, when you talk about return periods you talk about hazards, when you talk about the related economic damage you talk about risk!

Unfortunately this leads immediately to the next unpleasant question: How to measure economic losses? A total value for a storm with a given return period? Yearly costs caused by a storm of a certain return period and severity? Which risk is higher? A risk with low probability but high damages or rather moderate damages by high probability? How do you include human behavior, i.e. risk aversion? Lots to think about.

]]> By: Tommy O'Dell http://planetwater.org/2010/05/04/magnitudes-of-extreme-weather-events/comment-page-1/#comment-245 Tommy O'Dell Wed, 12 May 2010 23:34:23 +0000 http://planetwater.org/?p=928#comment-245 <p>Hi Claus,</p> <p>Interesting post! I wholeheartedly agree there's a general misunderstanding by the public. I wonder how much less suffering would occur if the average town planner had an excellent understanding of the topic?</p> <p>Also, if you're interested in "the problem of making statements about extreme events", you should check out Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan (if you haven't already).</p> <p>Cheers,</p> <p>Tommy</p> Hi Claus,

Interesting post! I wholeheartedly agree there’s a general misunderstanding by the public. I wonder how much less suffering would occur if the average town planner had an excellent understanding of the topic?

Also, if you’re interested in “the problem of making statements about extreme events”, you should check out Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan (if you haven’t already).

Cheers,

Tommy

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